There are many different types of modeling systems that are aimed at modeling different types of situations and observing different types of outcomes. Some are more simple than others, depending on the complexity of the system and the problem at hand. Simplest of all is the decision tree. Decision trees provide a logical and linear structure for a decision made and the event that occurs due to this decision. An example with respect to public health is a simple and easily distinguished outcome; a patient receives treatment and the outcome is they live, they do not receive treatment and they die. This model is very useful when dealing with situations in which there are a limited number of possible events, and there is a short timeline for the scenario. However, decision trees are not as useful when dealing with high variable and complex situations. Markov Models are slightly more complex simulations, which model chains of events in a “memoryless” manner, where predictions are only based on current states with no regard to past states. These models can be used to “many features present in the clinical process, such as risk of disease over time, [and] changing health states over time” (Kuntz et al. 2013). However, its disregard for past events leaves many important variables out of the equation that greatly impact future events. A final and more complex system of modeling is dynamic models, also known as infectious disease models. This type of model typically involves the simulation of interactions between humans and humans with other species. In order to simulate these interplays, complex differential equations must be used, leading to a more complex model. The transmission of disease based on spatial details and individual interactions can be be greatly detailed by this modeling system, leading to accurate quantification of impact of the disease. This data can allow simulation of interventions as well, so that transmission can be stopped. All of these modeling systems can be useful to predict and display public health issues and interventions.
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