Entropy

Our gut feeling told us that switching would bring better chances of winning the Hershey kiss, but if we switched and then got it wrong (while our original answer was correct) we would have felt frustrated, since probability says there are better chances of winning because of the switch. If we had stayed and gotten our original choice wrong, I think we would have felt better than switching and getting it wrong. Although staying would decrease the odds of winning, sometimes you want to trust your gut and original pick. Even though switching would bring better odds of winning, if you think you chose correctly the first time it might be hard to switch to the other one.We selected a cup, then were shown a cup which didn’t contain the candy, and we switched our guess to the other cup. 7 times out of 10 the cup we switched to contained the candy. We won the game 7 times. Our winning probability is .7 or 70%. We are not surprised by these results since the probability of winning when a switch is made is higher than the probability of winning when choosing to stay with the original choice. It makes sense that the mean of winning is higher when switching.